Supply chain complexity

Posted by: Paul Donovan

06 Jul 2020

Daily update

  • German factory orders grew a little over 10% in May. A bounce-back as lockdowns eased was widely though not universally expected (the consensus range was from -10% to +42.9%, rendering the consensus a slightly imprecise concept).  Spanish industrial production is due.
  • Consumers are inevitably likely to react faster than production as lockdowns ease. Consumers have money acquired during lockdown, and a desire to spend. Producers need their entire supply chains to be operational, which is likely to take longer. Complex supply chains are only as good as the weakest link in the chain.
  • A survey from the EU Chamber of Commerce in China suggests few firms intend to relocate production. The problem is that this survey has no correlation with European investment into China in recent years. However, as US President Trump's trade taxes have demonstrated, most supply chains cannot move overnight. Localization of trade has been slowly developing as automation makes localization lower cost than globalization, but this will take time.
  • There are some US business sentiment opinion polls that can be ignored. The EU is offering May retail sales data, which may be of minor interest.

Explore more CIO Daily Updates