Stimulation and shopping

Posted by: Paul Donovan

24 Jul 2020

Daily update

  • The US labour market showed a rise in initial jobless claims (continuing claims fell). Unsurprisingly, the rise was focused on areas where there has been a rise in virus cases, and a corresponding rise in fear about the virus. Areas where fear of the virus is stable of falling have a better labour market performance.
  • The positive spin to the labour market data is that large numbers of voters out of work help focus the minds of politicians. US Senate Leader McConnell did postpone announcing fiscal support proposals until Monday, but the data is likely to raise hopes of larger fiscal support measures (which markets will probably like).
  • UK retail sales were strong in June. People left lockdown with money to spend, and spent it. This shows the problems with mobility data—the UK has a large online retail sector, which mobility data misses. Initially companies are likely to use inventory to meet the demand, so the GDP boost will come later than the consumption surge.
  • There are assorted business sentiment opinion polls cluttering up the data calendar, taking up space that is required for other purposes. The pandemic has clearly shown that people do not answer the questions that they are asked on these surveys.

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