Stimulating times

Posted by: Paul Donovan

04 Jun 2020

Daily update

  • Germany has agreed on a EUR 130bn stimulus package (for Germany, not the Eurozone). This was larger than expected, with a VAT cut and infrastructure projects. These numbers do not include social security automatic stabilizers, while US fiscal numbers do (the US had to build a new social security safety net).
  • ECB President Lagarde will be happy that someone is doing fiscal stimulus (as the pandemic is a problem for fiscal policy, not central bank policy). Today's meeting should continue to emphasize the need for quantitative policy to support financial markets and ensure sufficient liquidity in the economy.
  • Oil prices have softened due to disagreements within OPEC. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to extend production cuts, but only if OPEC members cut to reverse past overproduction. Iraq has been criticized for overproducing, and today's virtual OPEC meeting is in doubt.
  • Eurozone retail sales numbers are due for April. The consensus range is -15% to -28% y/y. The number will probably land within that range (a herd of elephants could land within that range). US initial jobless claims will attract attention, productivity data will not. The US announced passenger flights from China will be suspended, keeping tensions in place – trade data is due today as well.

Explore more CIO Daily Updates