Prices and production

Posted by: Paul Donovan

11 Sep 2020

Daily update

  • There is quite a lot of inflation data out today. US consumer prices are probably still underreporting the US cost of living (food at home is rising in price quite a lot, but is weighted with pre-pandemic importance). However, an unusually large number of prices are falling, and an unusually small number of prices are rising, and we remain in a low inflation environment.
  • German wholesale prices remain in deflation territory. ECB Chief Economist Lane (whose words deserve to be treated with a special reverence) said that the euro was "dampening" inflation. The impact of currencies on inflation is likely to fade in the future, as localization takes hold.
  • UK July GDP was as expected – the consumer leads the economic bounce-back. Peculiarities in how the UK calculates its data (e.g. education) are affecting the numbers. Stronger manufacturing data reflects the need to rebuild inventories after the consumer demand surge.
  • US President Trump reiterated video app TikTok's 15 September sale deadline. The US seemingly fears the security risk of China learning dance moves to the Banjo Beat. The issue is what this signals about Sino-US relations, but the imminent US election means investors are unlikely to extrapolate current tensions.

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