Patterns emerge in the bounce-back

Posted by: Paul Donovan

11 Aug 2020

Daily update

  • The UK's BRC retail sales numbers were released. They still publish data with decimal points, which is unrealistically precise. However, the trend was of further increases in retail sales, focused on consumer durable goods. This pattern is likely to be repeated in other countries, as savings acquired in lockdown are spent in the bounce-back.
  • The UK ILO unemployment rate for June was reported at 3.9% (the forecast range was 3.9% to 6.0%). UK unemployment is, like that of Europe, held down by the furlough scheme. Unlike Europe, the UK will be phasing out its furlough scheme in the coming months, which will offer insight into how much structural damage the pandemic has caused.
  • The German and Eurozone ZEW survey of economists' sentiment is due. Normally, the views of economists would be revered. However, the forecast ranges for data releases are so wide these days, it is possible some economists do not know where the world is heading. That reduces the value of the ZEW.
  • US producer price inflation is due. This is a better indicator of pricing power by companies than is consumer price inflation, but as we are stuck in a low inflation world is only of limited market interest.

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