Media, mountains and Middle East peace

Posted by: Paul Donovan

24 Jan 2020
  • The pneumonia virus is still attracting the majority of media attention. Asian markets have not reacted too strongly today. The structural changes of the global economy complicate economic analysis of this. There may be a further shift to online retail sales, limiting the damage to the consumer. The rise of fake news on social media may spread fear faster and wider.
  • The ECB press conference and policy review offered little insight. ECB President Lagarde self-identified as an owl (rather than a hawk or a dove). Owls are birds of prey, of course. Overall, markets will stull struggle to find a single voice that speaks for the ECB's economic philosophy.
  • Assorted central bankers from assorted countries will be scrambling up a mountainside to offer prophetic statements today. However, no one ever goes to Davos to say something new. US President Trump announced (after leaving Davos) that there will be a Middle East peace plan by Tuesday. Markets are not paying this much attention.
  • There is nothing of note on the data calendar. Assorted sentiment opinion polls are due. Spanish PPI is also scheduled – Eurozone inflation has stopped surprising negatively, but today's figures are not likely to get investors excited.

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