Lawyers

Posted by: Paul Donovan

11 Feb 2020
  • US Fed Chair Powell, a lawyer not an economist, will give the semi-annual testimony to Congress. The written part of the testimony (prepared by Fed economists) should reflect the views of the whole FOMC. The question-and-answer session may offer less economic policy insight.
  • ECB President Lagarde, a lawyer not an economist, will give testimony to the European Parliament. Media reports are suggesting that the ECB's review of policy should end before Europe's "grandes vacances" begin. Lagarde is unlikely to take the lead in the economic policy discussions.
  • The UK does a data dump, with fourth quarter GDP the headline number. Investment spending is likely to be negative, driven down by the uncertainties caused by US President Trump's trade taxes and the interminable EU-UK divorce. Outgoing Bank of England Governor Carney (an economist not a lawyer) will give testimony to a House of Lords committee.
  • Markets are starting to speculate about the extent of Chinese economic stimulus to come. Factories are slowly returning to work. There is an economic effect from extending the Lunar New Year holidays. US and EU data has not been good at seasonally adjusting for the rising importance of the Lunar New Year in global supply chains.

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