Fiscal stimulus would fight fear

Posted by: Paul Donovan

05 Oct 2020

Daily update

  • US President Trump tweeted support for fiscal stimulus over the weekend, which may argue for a more generous package. However, so many Republican senators have contracted the virus that the Senate will not be voting on anything for two weeks. The delay may allow fear to increase in the economy, as consumers are only likely to be reassured about the consequences of unemployment when stimulus money is in their bank accounts.
  • The interminably tedious EU-UK divorce continues, with more noise over the weekend and the fascinating prospect of talks about fish this week. The message is still the same—expect nothing until the last possible moment (suggesting another month at least), and then expect years of negotiations after that. This never ends.
  • Bostic and Evans of the Federal Reserve are speaking, but the remarks are overshadowed by the prospect of Fed and ECB minutes later this week. Investors want to know what is likely to shape liquidity policy and the asset purchase programs.
  • There are several business confidence opinion polls due, which can be safely ignored. Eurozone retail sales for August (remember August?) are due, and should just continue the story of a consumer-led bounce-back.

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