Economic evolution

Posted by: Paul Donovan

15 Sep 2020

Daily update

  • Global virus cases continue to rise, and people continue to adapt in the face of the challenge—economic evolution. Chinese August industrial production was in the top half of the forecast range. Global demand is rising, so Chinese production is rising to meet it. Chinese consumption lags as consumers had less income support than in Europe or the US.
  • US industrial production is less relevant as a signal of global demand, but is also expected to increase. US manufacturing may become more important in the future as localization takes hold (economically beneficial if it is driven by efficiency in the fourth industrial revolution). Import prices are due, and are reported before trade taxes are applied.
  • July UK labor market data showed somewhat better earnings numbers (excluding bonus payments), with positive revisions to past jobless claims. Labor markets globally continue to do better than models predict—perhaps because models are not designed to deal with a policy induced slowdown in an economy with relatively few imbalances. Cyclically labor markets are improving quickly—the structural unemployment of the fourth industrial revolution is the challenge.
  • The ZEW German sentiment survey is only a survey. Markets will barely notice the release of French and Italian final consumer price inflation for August.

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