Bouncing back in a low inflation environment

Posted by: Paul Donovan

12 Aug 2020

Daily update

  • UK GDP fell a lot in the second quarter (how much is not terribly important, as the data will have to be revised). Financial markets are not very surprised. Industrial production rose quite a lot in June, also not a surprise.
  • Euro area industrial production for June is due—the market expects an increase of somewhere between 3% and 15.4% compared to May. Most advanced economy activity data has been coming in in the upper half of forecast ranges recently (to say it is beating consensus would imply that there was a meaningful economic consensus these days. There is no meaningful economic consensus these days).
  • US consumer price inflation remains a partially made up number, and is likely to understate inflation. The importance of food consumed at home is underweighted in the index at the moment, and in most advanced economies, food prices are rising noticeably faster than other prices. However, this is a temporary issue and overall inflation is likely to remain low.
  • US presidential candidate Biden selected Senator Harris as the Democrat vice-presidential candidate. Senator Harris has received support from US President Trump in the past. Markets are only likely to pay attention if this is seen as changing probabilities around the election.

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