A specific and limited morning comment

Posted by: Paul Donovan

09 Sep 2020

Daily update

  • The UK government has announced what might be called the "Barnard Castle" approach to international law – it will be broken, but in a specific and limited way. This is about the interminably tedious EU-UK divorce, and comes with risks: the EU may toughen its penalties in negotiations; international trade deals (especially with the US) may be harder; the UK's competitive advantage in rule of law may be affected.
  • Chinese inflation data slowed—a mainly local concern. Chinese consumer prices moderated on lower pork inflation (still over 50% y/y, but slowing). Producer price inflation remains negative, but this is only loosely tied to export prices. Chinese export prices are extremely loosely linked to foreign consumer prices. The international impact of this is therefore almost nil.
  • Financial markets have reacted to news that a leading vaccine trial has been temporarily halted. Trials often halt. Moreover, economically it is fear of the virus not the virus itself that is most important. With large numbers of Americans saying they will not take a vaccine if available, it is hard to argue that this news will increase fear.
  • US Senate leader McConnell has proposed a vote on limited fiscal stimulus on Thursday. Congressional Democrats do not support these measures.

Explore more CIO Daily Updates