A saga ends (not Brexit, sadly)

Posted by: Paul Donovan

14 Sep 2020

Daily update

  • The saga of the video app TikTok has dragged on longer than one of its memes; Oracle has agreed to become the US technical partner. From a macroeconomic perspective, what matters is whether the US and Chinese governments agree. If they do, it will signal tensions as normal (at least until the US presidential election).
  • Eurozone industrial production for July is due. If the Eurozone wants investors to pay attention, it needs to speed up the publication of its numbers. We already have the local data. The overall story of a consumer led bounce-back gradually feeding into production is intact.
  • Oxford University's clinical trials of a virus vaccine have resumed. Some countries have people more afraid of science than afraid of the pandemic, saying they will not take a vaccine. Lower fear of the virus signals economic support now, but fear of a vaccine suggests less ability to contain the virus in the future.
  • The interminably tedious EU-UK divorce is still with us (of course). There are reports that the UK-Japan treaty sets stricter rules for state aid than the EU has been considering. Investors should ignore everything until the last possible minute, as nothing will be decided until the last possible minute.

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