Who governs?

Posted by: Paul Donovan

11 Nov 2019
  • Spain's general election has produced no clear result. The governing Socialists remain the largest party, with slightly fewer seats. This result was expected by markets. The increase in support for the far-right Vox party may attract some attention. It is unwise to read anything from this for other European countries.
  • The US has the Veterans' Day holiday. The Trump Twitter Feed was quiet on trade over the weekend, focusing on impeachment. US President Trump did suggest that no rollback of tariffs had been agreed. Trump speaks at the New York Economics Club (economists are social, and have a club) on Tuesday.
  • Chinese consumer prices rose more than expected, with pork prices rising over 100% y/y. The impact of this on consumer prices elsewhere in the world is minimal. China is not a major food exporter. Pork is less important to other economies' consumer prices. US pork inflation is around 1.5%.
  • UK third quarter GDP is due. UK investment is weakened by the uncertainty over global trade, and the uncertainty over the interminably tedious EU-UK divorce. A credit rating agencies' threat to downgrade the UK from something to something else is being largely ignored.