The UK government has a cunning plan

Posted by: Paul Donovan

22 Jan 2019
  • UK Prime Minister May has a cunning plan for exiting the EU. This is almost exactly the same as the old plan. Parliament votes on this next week, with the chance to amend the plan. Markets assume that this will make a negotiated exit more likely.
  • The US government is still shut down. US President Trump's Twitter Feed is not shut down. The US president wants China to do a "real" trade deal. That suggests a deal good enough to allow US equities to rally (US tariffs are a tax on US equities), but not good enough to stop the president from tweeting against China in the 2020 election.
  • The IMF has revised its forecast for global growth from 3.7% to 3.5% this year. The slowdown is fine. The precise forecast is nonsense. Economic data is not good enough to say what global growth is with such precision. (Global GDP is also something of a nonsense statistic.) Investors can safely ignore this.
  • UK labor market data may help to explain why UK consumers are relatively unconcerned by the political noise. German ZEW business confidence is due (an opinion poll of financial analysts, not of people who live in the real world).

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