The age of the worker?

Posted by: Paul Donovan

30 Apr 2019
  • Korean industrial production was notably stronger in March, although February data was revised lower. China has increased its role to become the largest global manufacturer. This means that global supply chains are more affected by the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • French GDP for the first quarter was as expected, hovering around trend. Consumers seem content to push through the rioters to the shops, and protests have seemingly had a fading impact on production. Spanish GDP is due. Otherwise, Europe publishes a mass of inflation data – most European inflation is normal (i.e. close to long-term averages).
  • US employment cost data for the first quarter is due. This does not normally get economists passionately excited (just moderately excited). However, this may be the first time in recent history a tight labor market combines with flexible labor market structures. For most of this century, flexible labor markets favored employers – but with labor shortages, flexibility favors the workers.
  • Possible US Fed governor nominee Moore has met opposition from two Republican senators. The potential politicization of the Fed is a real risk – not because of Moore as such, but because what the possible nomination of Moore signals. Markets may welcome Senate resistance to politicization. 

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