Someone you won't have heard of says "no new taxes"

Posted by: Paul Donovan

10 Dec 2019
  • The US-China trade conflict rivals Brexit for tedium. The US agriculture secretary (who almost no one will ever have heard of) suggested a reprieve for US taxpayers, saying the 15 December tax increase would probably not happen. This does not have the majesty of a Trump tweet, but it is the only news markets have to play with at the moment.
  • Chinese consumer price inflation was higher than expected, boosted (again) by a 110% increase in pork prices. Producer prices fell. Pork inflation is a local problem (UK consumer prices for pork continue to fall, for example). The effects are expected to fade in the next few months.
  • French and Italian industrial production numbers are due. The earlier release of German industrial production continued to trend down – but Germany is a big producer of investment goods (hurt by trade uncertainty). The Germans also seem to have forgotten how to make cars. France's data is before the recent strike action, and US President Trump has not yet started to tax US consumers of champagne.
  • UK data will be muffled by the general election. US unit labor cost and productivity data could be interesting if it were accurate. It is almost certainly not accurate.

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