Data dump Wednesday

Posted by: Paul Donovan

27 Nov 2019
  • The US is dumping data into the markets. Third quarter GDP will be revised. Some commentators were critical of China's recent +2.1% revision to 2018 GDP growth. However, the US has revised real GDP growth by almost 4% on occasion. We should have some certainty about third quarter GDP in a couple of years. That is probably beyond the attention span of most traders.
  • US durable goods orders contain details of capital goods orders (investment). The uncertainty caused by US President Trump's trade taxes has damaged global investment growth. US personal spending data hints at the strength of the US consumer. Personal income data is a better guide than average earnings to labor market payments – it captures self-employment better, and rising employment participation should raise household income (but is likely to lower average earnings).
  • Italian consumer and manufacturing sentiment numbers are due. Sentiment data globally has been recovering back to the stronger levels of reality. The question is whether Italian reality is stronger.
  • An opinion poll is due in the UK after markets close. Normally one poll makes little difference, but this is a constituency based poll. With tactical voting and half of UK voters now "floating" voters, this may assume more market significance.

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