Black clouds, or good Friday?

Posted by: Paul Donovan

29 Nov 2019
  • American markets are inevitably quiet today, as the entire population rushes to spend money they don't have on things they don't need, because the price is lower than it was. This is not necessarily economically or environmentally efficient.
  • The Eurozone offers final French GDP data. Sweden is also giving GDP numbers. Sweden recently revised down its unemployment rate by almost an entire percentage point. The central bank has signalled a desire to end negative rates as soon as possible.
  • One of the credit rating agencies (no one cares which) is talking about the "Japanification" of the Eurozone. Japan, the Eurozone and the US have all had very similar growth rates recently (measured as GDP per person). Japan's crisis can be blamed on a failure of small and medium-sized companies to adapt to changing economic structures. Europe's Mittelstand is more flexible and in better health.
  • Politics looms again, but not in the UK (where the prime minister was replaced by a block of melting ice in last night's leadership debate). In Germany, the junior coalition partner, the SPD, will elect a new leadership team this weekend. One set of candidates favor keeping the grand coalition. The other set of candidates do not.