Healthcare Providers UBS Weekly Hospital COVID Recovery Tracker –Surge Slowing Recovery in Very Few States

According to CDC data, COVID-19 cases represented 8.0% of total US volumes vs. 8.9% last week & 12.9% 1 month prior. Non-COVID-19 volumes are growing faster than COVID-19 volumes, & the curve continues to show improvement off April lows.

17 Jun 2020

Total U.S. ADC Growth vs. 4/15-4/21

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Preventation, National Healthcare Safety Network, UBS Research

This line chart shows total U.S. ADC growth from 21 April through 16 June.

UBS Weekly Hospital COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Volume #3

The UBS Weekly Hospital COVID-19 Tracker is built on data procured from the CDC spanning today across 3,200+ US hospitals. This dataset is updated weekly and reported to the CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) COVID-19 module. This rich dataset gives us empirical evidence to analyze the recovery by tracking COVID-19 volumes, non-COVID-19 volumes and ICU occupancy. We present a framework to estimate how each hospital company is tracking y/y or vs. pre-COVID-19 levels.

National hospital volumes are +18% above April 15-21 vs. 15% last week

Based on our analysis of the CDC data, the US prior week 7 day average daily census (ADC) is +18% above April 15-21. This compares to the 7 day average of +15% last week and 7 day average of +9% 1 month prior. COVID-19 cases represented 8.0% of total US volumes vs. 8.9% last week and 12.9% 1 month prior. Therefore, non-COVID-19 volumes are growing faster than COVID-19 volumes. Total US data remains encouraging for both Hospitals and Medtech as the slope of the curve continues to show steady linear improvement off April lows which strikes us contrary to recent debates.

Recent COVID-19 flare-ups look only concerning in Arizona

This note ranks the recovery for each state off the April lows. The most relevant states show continued w/w improvement in non-COVID-19 to COVID-19 trends. Further, we highlight that the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in TX is only modestly flattening out the recovery. AZ's surge activity continues to depress the recovery. The spread of non-COVID-19 to COVID-19 cases in Florida continues to widen. We illustrate how COVID-19 cases are declining across most key states (particularly NV and MI).

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