Chinese consumers' plans after COVID-19 is controlled
Material impact of COVID-19: casino closures may last till end of June
We reduce our 2020 Korea gross gaming revenue (GGR) estimates materially (by around 33%) to factor in the negative impact from COVID-19 and announced closures of most casinos. We expect most announced shutdowns (domestic since 23 February; foreigner-only [FO] since 24 March) to last until end-June, implying GGR contribution of close to zero for Q220. However, we expect a faster recovery for the domestic market upon reopening, given the potential prolonged impact of travel demand regionally. We forecast FO/domestic GGR to decline year over year by 29%/33% before recovering by around 25% year over year combined in 2021E; this assumes that GGR returns to around 80%/93% of 2019 GGR levels by 2021.