Italian Diversified Financials AUM change
We forecast Q1:20 group assets under management (AUMs) will contract 10% quarter over quarter and 3% year over year for the Italian asset managers/gatherers as negative market performance offsets the positive flows booked last quarter. Despite the challenging market environment, we expect revenues/EBITDA will grow 11%/15% year over year in Q1:20 thanks to higher management fees (average AUMs were actually higher year over year), performance fees and net interest income.
Distribution strengths drive positive flows in Q1:20
The strength of the distribution channels of the Italian asset managers/gatherers drove Q1:20 AUM inflows of 0.3% of AUMs for the group. Nevertheless, these were the weakest flows for the group of the last 5+ years as the tough market environment negatively impacted the risk sentiment of Italian customers.