Diversified Financial Italian Diversified Financials: Q120 preview

Italian asset managers we cover posted positive Q120 flows in a challenging market but this was the weakest quarter over last 12 months & due to negative market performance, we expect assets under management (AUM) to fall 3% year over year

27 Apr 2020

Italian Diversified Financials AUM change

While the Italian Diversified Financials posted positive AUM flows even in Q1:20 despite the challenging market environment, Q1:20 flows were the weakest of the last 12 months

Q1:20 preview

We forecast Q1:20 group assets under management (AUMs) will contract 10% quarter over quarter and 3% year over year for the Italian asset managers/gatherers as negative market performance offsets the positive flows booked last quarter. Despite the challenging market environment, we expect revenues/EBITDA will grow 11%/15% year over year in Q1:20 thanks to higher management fees (average AUMs were actually higher year over year), performance fees and net interest income.

Distribution strengths drive positive flows in Q1:20

The strength of the distribution channels of the Italian asset managers/gatherers drove Q1:20 AUM inflows of 0.3% of AUMs for the group. Nevertheless, these were the weakest flows for the group of the last 5+ years as the tough market environment negatively impacted the risk sentiment of Italian customers.

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