Media European Media - Turning more positive

In European Media we expect a sharp decline in revenues in Q220, with Q320 to remain negative before rebounding in Q4. We expect agencies to perform better in Q1-20 (-5% organic growth declines vs. -10% for broadcasters and outdoor).

16 Apr 2020

We expect a sharp decline in revenues in Q220, Q320 to remain negative and a rebound in Q421

Source: UBSe, Company data

This figure uses UBS estimate and company data to show growth and loss in revenues in categories of broadcasters, agencies, and outdoor. The figure shows a decline in revenues for most of 2020, with a small rise at the end of this year and the beginning of 2021.

Turning more positive on sector post our deep-dive work

While the world is in lockdown, the UBS Media team have been talking to corporates, investors and internal strategy and macro teams. We have built scenarios linking short-term earnings with the length of the lockdown period, pondered which companies should see V-shaped recoveries and which may see value permanently impaired. Our approach has been to assume a long lockdown period in our base case, expecting COVID-19 to impact performance during all of Q220 and most of Q320.

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