Consumer, Non-cyclical European Beverages & Tobacco - What we have learned from Q1 so far
Nielson off-trade beer data in Europe has seen a sequential acceleration recently. There was a sharp spike over the 4 weeks to 22nd March, with sales growing 8.2% compared to 6.3%/ 1.6% in the prior 12/ 52 weeks
Off-trade beer sales in Europe
Source: Nielsen, UBS analysis
Tobacco resilience largely confirmed but beverages trends more mixed
In this report we (i) summarise the key themes from the reporting season so far, (ii) provide updated estimates across the sector and (iii) review the latest external scanner data. In tobacco, results have so far largely confirmed the strong resilience of the core business model. In beverages, the China on-trade recovery appears to be disappointing compared to initial company expectations, while US/European off-premise consumption has surprised positively. In beer, topline trends have been weak but margins guidance more cautious. In terms of balance sheets all companies have so far stressed their strong liquidity with the tobacco stocks most reassuring on dividends.
