Global Macro Strategy Global Economics & Strategy - COVID-19 Compendium: Toughest Investor Questions

COVID-19's shock to global growth will be larger than the global financial crisis. But with likely only 2 quarters of negative growth in most countries, we believe it will be one of the shortest recessions on record.

02 Apr 2020

Global growth – long-run perspective

Source: UBS, Haver

Using our frameworks to attempt the toughest investor questions

In  this  note  Team  UBS  tackle  the  most  difficult  questions  we  have  received  from  investors. Short one-page answers, with a few charts to make the case.

  1. Is this worse than the Global Financial Crisis shock?
  2. Will the fiscal and monetary stimuli help the market bottom?
  3. How high will unemployment go?
  4. What is a likely worst-case scenario for global equities?
  5. What level might defaults in the US rise to?
  6. Is the Fed getting ahead of funding market stress?
  7. How much stimulus can one expect from China?
  8. Why are EUR and JPY not stronger?
  9. Should we worry about Italian debt sustainability?
  10. Could EM suffer the most sustained damage?
  11. Are credit risks brewing in EU banks?

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