The questions that matter, shaping the future of capital markets
Unprecedented political, economic, social and technological change is causing a fundamental shift in capital markets.
To understand how these trends could shape the way capital is sourced, distributed and deployed, you need to separate the signal from the noise and focus on the pivotal questions.
UBS has partnered with The Financial Times to create FT Transact; a new multi-channel video hub that dives deeper into those questions. To see more content, visit the FT Transact site.
Will China win the AI arms race?
The worldwide AI race is on. China’s openly targeting global leadership by 2030, and it’s well on the way. AI's fuelled by data, and that gives China a competitive advantage. UBS's Bill Lu and Sinvovation CEO and AI expert Kai-Fu Lee examine the factors that could lead to China winning the race, plus which sectors and firms are best placed to benefit.
Tesla's ramping up production of the Model 3. But is the electric vehicle evolutionary, or revolutionary?
And what do its parts, and the way it's made, tell us about the future of a multi-billion dollar industry?
Trade wars: the impact
A full-blown trade war between the US and China could mean global GDP decelerates by more than 100 basis points, and major global equity indices tumble by more than 20 percent.
UBS have modelled three scenarios assess what ongoing trade disputes might do to the global economy.
Is the kitchen dead?
UBS estimates global online food ordering could leap from $35bn dollars today to $365bn by 2030. It’s thanks to a convergence of the on-demand and sharing economies, and a combination of industrial, economic and demographic factors.
Analyst Chris Grundberg explains the UBS Evidence Lab research, and considers whether the kitchen is dead.
Will regulatory reform become a China investor's biggest opportunity?
Regulatory reforms are set to revolutionise China’s Financial Services industry, opening up numerous opportunities for international investors.
In its best-case scenario, UBS forecasts China’s mutual fund assets to reach $7.5 trillion by 2025, and a total revenue pool of $100 billion. UBS’s Kelvin Chu explains why China represents the single largest growth opportunity for global investment managers.
FT Transact - India Demographics
On paper, India is a demographic diamond in the rough. In the next decade, the ratio of its population at working age is set to surpass China’s.
On paper, India is a demographic diamond in the rough. In the next decade, the ratio of its population at working age is set to surpass China’s.And in the next five years, the amount of Indians entering the labour market will be one-and-a-half times that of the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, the US and EU combined. But can India create enough quality jobs to meet the market's growth hopes? Gautam Chhaochharia, Head of India Research at UBS, investigates.
US inflation under the microscope
The US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and wants inflation to get to its target, but not much above.
The outlook’s changing fast though, and the risks of rising inflation increasing as 2020 approaches. UBS Chief Economist Seth Carpenter and his colleague, 15-year Fed veteran Alan Detmeister, deep dive on inflation, interest rates and unemployment, giving their predictions for the US economy in the short and mid-term.
Emerging markets: Macro worry, micro euphoria
There’s a macro-micro divide in emerging markets. The IMF and BIS are warning against rising corporate debt, yet P/E ratios are soaring.
Where does the debt lie, how long can this dichotomy last, and will the ultimate impact be on equities and government balance sheets? These and other key questions are answered by Bhanu Bhaweja, Head of EM Cross Asset Strategy at UBS Investment Bank.
Monetising China's eSports boom
Global eSports revenues are predicted to hit $1.5bn by 2020. Fans are young, passionate, and given they’re 38% female, a marketer’s dream. In 2017, the finals of 'League of Legends’, owned by China’s Tencent, had a total of 1.2 billion views.
Research from UBS Evidence Lab shows Chinese gamers play for longer, more often, with more people, and an increasing focus on commercialisation is likely to drive further growth in this booming sector.
The critical role diversity plays in economic growth
With consumption rising, the only way humanity can maintain or improve its standard of living is to do more with less. That requires innovation and productivity. Diversity is absolutely essential for this.
Monocultures rarely generate innovative thinking, while prejudice inhibits the potential of human capital. For real economic growth, diversity is critical.
Capital expenditure is on the up: What it means for innovation and growth
In the US and Asia, capex has been driving improvements in corporate performance. Now, after 6 sluggish years, a positive trend has emerged in Europe as well.
Capex correlates highly to innovation and profitability, but what’s behind its return and how will it impact economies worldwide?
Rise of the robo-taxi: Driving transport disruption
Robo-taxis are coming. Singapore will be testing vehicles as early as next year, and ultimately they could prove significantly cheaper and more popular than current mass-transit systems.
Serious disruption is looming for the transport industry, and car sales may be negatively impacted, but if carmakers and other industry players approach the transition wisely, new opportunities will arise.
Asia’s innovation boom: Where it’s happening and why it matters
Asia's R&D spend is on track to exceed Europe and the US combined by 2020. But which countries are innovating, what are the implications and are investors pricing in the potential?
These and other key questions are answered by Niall MacLeod, Head of Asian Equity Research Strategy at UBS Securities Asia.
Electric Vehicles: Who wins under the hood?
Electric Vehicles are going mainstream, but when will they become profitable for manufacturers, and which sectors and firms are set to benefit the most?
UBS strips down a 2017 Chevy Bolt and lets a team of 39 analysts loose on its 563 parts to find out where the profits lie in what’s set to be a major industrial disruption.
Protectionism in Practice: Examining the economic impact of tariffs
If the US put tariffs on Chinese goods, the impact would be felt way beyond the borders of both countries. China is the world’s biggest exporter, but it’s also the second biggest importer, with many of those imports coming from other Asian countries
Ben Rhodes, Former US Deputy National Security Advisor and Dr. Tao Wang, Chief China Economist at UBS discuss the economic and geopolitical ramifications of potential US protectionism.
Active vs passive investing: Alpha and beta go head to head
There’s been a boom in passive investment since the turn of the millennium, channeling the flow of capital away from mutual funds into hedge funds and sector specialists. But how far can beta go, and will alpha undergo a renaissance?
UBS Investment Bank’s Paul Winter, Head of Quantitative Research - Asia Pacific, and Shane Edwards, Global Head of Structured Solutions, look at the future of investment.