Multi-sector What does the US reopening look like?

UBS Evidence Lab looks at data on restaurant reservations, number of hourly workers, locations open, hours worked, and more to see which US states have opened up the most. We also leverage a nationwide survey of 5-10K consumers.

19 Jun 2020
  • California, Texas, and South Carolina have reported the highest week-on-week increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, while Massachusetts, Illinois, and New York have reported the biggest declines.
  • All these states except New York have seen a notable w/w increase in the number of people dining out at restaurants.
  • Rhode Island and Nevada have seen a significant increase in dining out but little change in case counts.
  • The number of hourly employees at work has been increasing. It is relatively high in California and Texas, while it is lower in Massachusetts and Illinois.
  • In terms of locations open and hours worked, the most open states include Montana, Nebraska, and Wyoming, while the least open are New York, Massachusetts, and Hawaii.
  • Based on the consumer survey, 31% of people are now comfortable going out to eat at restaurants, up from 8% in early April and 14% in early May.
  • 21% are comfortable traveling or going on vacation, an increase from early April (16%) and early May (20%).
  • However, many consumers would not be comfortable traveling (42%) or visiting restaurants (26%) for at least another 6 months.

Dining-Out Index vs. Daily Cases: Week-on-Week Change

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, OpenTable, Johns Hopkins University

Hourly Workers Index in California, Texas, Illinois, and Massachusetts

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Homebase at https://joinhomebase.com/data

Locations Open vs. Hours Worked in US States

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Homebase at https://joinhomebase.com/data

How soon from now would you be comfortable traveling and/or going on vacation?

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Civic Science

How soon from now would you be comfortable going out to eat at restaurants?

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Civic Science