Multi-sector How can we track the recovery in China?

China migration and traffic congestion data shows an acceleration after the May holiday period (Baidu has stopped providing migration data as of 6 May, but traffic congestion is another way to look at whether activity is recovering).

14 May 2020
  • Traffic congestion in major cities has been rising and was as high as ~70% of last year's level before dipping in early May.
  • Wuhan has lower relative congestion but has been recovering more rapidly.
  • The latest migration data shows a year-over-year decline in movement between Chinese provinces in early May followed by a recovery to 20% below last year's level.
  • Movement out of Chinese provinces has been accelerating but remains below year-ago levels.
  • A month ago, movement out of most provinces was still decelerating y/y.
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Traffic Congestion in Chinese Cities in 2020 Relative to 2019

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, TomTom

Note: Relative congestion is 7-day rolling average

Movement Between Provinces in China – Change y/y

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Baidu

Note: China averages are population-weighted outflow/inflow averages

Movement Out of Provinces in China

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Baidu

Note: Figures are based on trailing 2-week averages to smooth volatility; growth trends measure the day-over-day change in year-over-year growth expressed in percentage points or the acceleration or deceleration of growth