Multi-sector Did Covid-19 affect key US indicators for April?

With most US states remaining under "stay-at-home" orders in April and many manufacturers suspending production, activity continued to decline.

01 May 2020
  • US aggregate retail sales excluding autos and gas could decline 13.0% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in April, according to UBS Evidence Lab's Nowcasting model. Official data will be released on May 15 at 8:30am EDT.
  • The model suggests April Manufacturing Industrial Production (rolling 3 months) shrank 5.1% y/y, based on the continued deceleration seen in the weekly datasets we track (March's actual decline was 2.6%). Official data will be released May 15 at 9:15am EDT.
  • Private construction may have fallen 1.2% relative to March, not an exceptional decline given the historical volatility of this indicator. The official figure will be released on June 1.

Retail Sales (Ex-Gas, Ex-Auto) (M/M)

Source: UBS Evidence Lab

US Manufacturing Industrial Production (Rolling 3 Months) (Y/Y)

Source: UBS Evidence Lab

Private Construction (M/M)

Source: UBS Evidence Lab