Consumer Where do US consumers plan to spend?

The UBS Evidence Lab Spending Intention Score is a time series model based on survey of consumers' purchase plans. It provides a gauge of sentiment (not intended as a forecast). Receipt data shows share of transactions at various retailers.

28 May 2020
  • Though US consumers intend to spend less on discretionary categories in the next three months, building materials & gardening equipment is an exception, with consumers planning to increase spending in August of this year.
  • Purchase receipt data also shows a positive trend, with home improvement's share of retail transactions rising in April.
  • Within consumer discretionary categories, apparel has the lowest Spending Intention Score, with consumers saying they expect to spend ~90% less in June-August than they did last year.
  • Receipt data shows department stores have seen among the largest declines in share of transactions.
  • For food & beverage, the Spending Intention Score shows double-digit growth in the next 3 months.
  • Share of spending at grocery stores has risen sharply in the past few months, based on receipt data.
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Building Materials & Gardening Equipment: Change in Spending Intention y/y

Source: UBS Evidence Lab; US Census Bureau data

Note: Solid line in chart shows historical data reported by the US Census Bureau; dotted line shows UBS Evidence Lab Spend Intention Score.

Home Improvement Change in US Retail Transactions Share: Z-Score, Trailing 12 Months

Source: UBS Evidence Lab; CoinOut

Note: For receipt data, we use the z-score (number of standard deviations from the mean) to adjust for bias in the CoinOut app's user base.

Apparel Stores: Change in Spending Intention y/y

Source: UBS Evidence Lab; US Census Bureau data

Note: Solid line in chart shows historical data reported by the US Census Bureau; dotted line shows UBS Evidence Lab Spend Intention Score.

Department Stores Change in US Retail Transactions Share: Z-Score, Trailing 12 Months

Source: UBS Evidence Lab; CoinOut

Note: For receipt data, we use the z-score (number of standard deviations from the mean) to adjust for bias in the CoinOut app's user base.

Food & Beverage Stores: Change in Spending Intention y/y

Source: UBS Evidence Lab; US Census Bureau data

Note: Solid line in chart shows historical data reported by the US Census Bureau; dotted line shows UBS Evidence Lab Spend Intention Score.

Grocery Stores Change in US Retail Transactions Share: Z-Score, Trailing 12 Months

Source: UBS Evidence Lab; CoinOut

Note: For receipt data, we use the z-score (number of standard deviations from the mean)to adjust for bias in the CoinOut app's user base.