Consumer Where do US consumers plan to spend?
The UBS Evidence Lab Spending Intention Score is a time series model based on survey of consumers' purchase plans. It provides a gauge of sentiment (not intended as a forecast). Receipt data shows share of transactions at various retailers.
- Though US consumers intend to spend less on discretionary categories in the next three months, building materials & gardening equipment is an exception, with consumers planning to increase spending in August of this year.
- Purchase receipt data also shows a positive trend, with home improvement's share of retail transactions rising in April.
- Within consumer discretionary categories, apparel has the lowest Spending Intention Score, with consumers saying they expect to spend ~90% less in June-August than they did last year.
- Receipt data shows department stores have seen among the largest declines in share of transactions.
- For food & beverage, the Spending Intention Score shows double-digit growth in the next 3 months.
- Share of spending at grocery stores has risen sharply in the past few months, based on receipt data.
Building Materials & Gardening Equipment: Change in Spending Intention y/y
Source: UBS Evidence Lab; US Census Bureau data
Home Improvement Change in US Retail Transactions Share: Z-Score, Trailing 12 Months
Source: UBS Evidence Lab; CoinOut
Apparel Stores: Change in Spending Intention y/y
Source: UBS Evidence Lab; US Census Bureau data
Department Stores Change in US Retail Transactions Share: Z-Score, Trailing 12 Months
Source: UBS Evidence Lab; CoinOut
Food & Beverage Stores: Change in Spending Intention y/y
Source: UBS Evidence Lab; US Census Bureau data
Grocery Stores Change in US Retail Transactions Share: Z-Score, Trailing 12 Months
Source: UBS Evidence Lab; CoinOut