China Does recent data suggest China is returning to normal?

With reports that new cases of COVID-19 in China have slowed and restrictions on movement are being lifted, many are asking whether activity is returning to normal.

31 Mar 2020
  • At the beginning of March, movement out of Hubei province was down ~90% y/y; it is now up ~40% y/y.
  • Overall provincial outflows in China have risen materially since their mid-February lows, though the uptrend has leveled off in recent weeks and migration is still well below levels a year ago.
  • Movement out of Guizhou has been well above last year's level, though the y/y increase has recently been slowing.

China Provinces: Year-Over-Year Migration Outflow Growth

Source: UBS Evidence Lab