China Does recent data suggest China is returning to normal?
With reports that new cases of COVID-19 in China have slowed and restrictions on movement are being lifted, many are asking whether activity is returning to normal.
- At the beginning of March, movement out of Hubei province was down ~90% y/y; it is now up ~40% y/y.
- Overall provincial outflows in China have risen materially since their mid-February lows, though the uptrend has leveled off in recent weeks and migration is still well below levels a year ago.
- Movement out of Guizhou has been well above last year's level, though the y/y increase has recently been slowing.
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China Provinces: Year-Over-Year Migration Outflow Growth
Source: UBS Evidence Lab
