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Liquidity of real estate investments – Challenges for investors during the real estate cycle
How dependent is the development of real estate and its liquidity on the general development of the wider economy? Gunnar Herm and Dominic v. Felten shed some light on the influences of varying economic cycles on real estate, their resulting effects on the letting and investment markets, and liquidity requirements for real estate investments. The authors then explain which types of liquidity for real estate exist and analyze different structures within the primary and secondary markets. What becomes apparent is the increase in significance – and the potential – of a functioning secondary market.
Global real estate summary, edition 1
This summary captures the macroeconomic fundamentals as well as comments on global real estate trends and strategies. All regional summaries are structured in the same fashion, shedding light on demand and supply aspects in the region in question as well as the respective capital markets. The Viewpoint finally rounds off each section.
US Real Estate Outlook 2017
Commercial real estate and farmland investment is on everyone's radar these days. Our US Real Estate Outlook 2017 offers a look at how trends in the economy and capital markets impact these sectors in the United States with quick-takes on each of the key property types. Four investment themes provide strategic guides for long-term allocations and smart tactical decisions.
US Real estate summary – edition 2
US commercial real estate rents are rising faster than inflation. Transactions volume appears to be leveling off near record highs. Appreciation remains higher than history but slowed during 1Q16, as expected. Positive outlook for 2016 even with reduced expectations for total return.
US Real estate summary – edition 1
US commercial real estate performance reflects the strength of fundamentals. 2015 produced a sixth year of above-average appreciation and strong income growth.Tax reform passed in December 2015 potentially benefits qualified foreign pension plans. Positive outlook for 2016 even with reduced expectations for total return.
Real Estate Research Blast – What's in a statistical area?
Awash in acronyms, the hierarchical nature of CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Area) and MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Area) is not immediately apparent to the ordinary observer. This is markedly true in witnessing the term's common usage. A particular geographic region may commonly be referred to as an MSA and a CBSA; both usages would be completely correct.
Chinas rebalancing – White Paper
Much has been touted about China's rebalancing, tilting away from investments and low-end manufacturing towards a model that is focused on innovation, services and a larger consumption component. No doubt it is always easy to extrapolate and assume that economic history may provide textbook answers as to how China should and would manage its problems, but more often than not, we neglect to see China's current conundrum in its entirety.
Real Estate Research Blast – On China: Observations on the effervescent residential market, November 2016
A recent headline in the Chinese local media raised eyebrows with regards to the frothy nature of China's housing market, when a prominent local developer priced its latest residential product launch in an upscale district of Shanghai at an astronomical RMB 300,000 per square meter (approximately USD 4,200 per square feet).
APAC Real Estate Outlook – 2H16
APAC domestic demand drivers remained resilient in 2Q16, supported by further monetary easing, relatively healthy jobs markets and the ongoing structural shift towards services sector production. The latter is being driven by changes in consumer preferences, improvements in technology, wage growth (in emerging markets) but also lower global growth. Weaker trade volumes as a result of slower global growth, increasing trade restrictions and lack of significant liberalization agreements in recent years means that Asia's historical drivers of capital spending and exports have taken a back seat to services based consumption and jobs.
Real Estate Research Blast – Brexit: The Asia Pacific perspective
As investors come to terms with the outcome of the UK's referendum on its EU membership, the vote to exit will have implications for the global economy and financial markets. Investors should brace themselves for a period of heightened volatility by taking advantage of selective opportunities and positioning their investment strategies accordingly.
Real Estate Research Blast – Japan's negative interest rate policy
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) joined the negative interest rate club earlier this year, following in the footsteps of central banks in Europe – including the ECB, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Danish National Bank – and which have pushed deposit rates on bank reserves below the zero threshold, albeit to varying degrees.
Research Blast – Multi-channel retailing – December 2016
The retail sector has undergone a large amount of change in recent years, mostly as a consequence of the phenomenal growth in online retail over the last two decades, but especially the last five years. Online retail has been the main driver for growth in Europe, although arguably it has just accelerated the rate of the inevitable evolution in the sector.
Eurozone Real Estate Outlook – 2H16
The slowdown in China and other emerging markets viewed in conjunction with the uncertainties surrounding Brexit, has led to a downward revision of economic growth prospects in the eurozone. However, the threat of contagion appears limited for now. Domestic demand in the eurozone has expanded at a healthy rate so far in 2016, and the recovery has broadened away from household spending. While Brexit could be a shock that brings the current self-sustained recovery to halt, it seems to be far too soon to assume that this is inevitable.
Real assets, real expertise (Global ex-UK real estate exposure)
Across most real estate markets, the conventional practice for investors has been: (a) invest in their domestic market; and then (b) consider cross border opportunities. Real estate investment has not been exclusively domestic, but there has been a strong home bias for the majority of investors. Real estate markets differ across the globe and are subject to different risks and local practices. With investor expertise typically focused on domestic markets, this forms a deterrent to those wishing to invest beyond their domestic markets, above and beyond the very real concerns around currency risk, transparency, and tax issues.
Research Blast – NPLs in the Italian banking system and potential impacts on commercial real estate
The Italian banking sector is currently seen one of the weakest in the eurozone, with the European Banking Authority reporting a Tier 1 ratio of 12% and a Return of Equity (RoE) of 3.3% in their 1Q16 Risk Dashboard.
Research Blast – European Real Estate Summary – Edition 3, 2016
Despite uncertainties, occupational demand continues to strengthen. Shortage of good quality CRE for occupation is driving prime rental growth. Sharp slowdown in UK investment activity while rest of Europe sees a bounce-back on 1Q. Market fundamentals remain strong but geopolitical risks are accentuated.
Real Estate Research Blast – The market needs to correct, not be forced to collapse
On the face of it, the past week has been a tumultuous one for UK commercial real estate. In the more liquid equity markets we have continued to see share prices for UK house builders and REITs slide, whilst the impacts of the Brexit vote are now filtering into direct, retail real estate funds.
Real Estate Research Blast – European financial office markets post-Brexit
Let us say it upfront: London is the number one global financial center and is not easily replaced. Were London's position to be challenged, it would not only be a major risk for the UK economy but also a broader threat to the EU, if not the rest of the world.
Real Estate Research Blast – Brexit: The outcome
The full impact of the vote to exit will take longer to emerge in the real estate market than other more liquid asset classes. Real estate transactions which would provide indications of the impact on pricing will take months to complete, whilst the valuation based property index in the UK will also have a lag in reflecting the impact of the decision.
German: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook 2H16
Die Schweizer Konjunktur setzte ihre Erholung im 1. Halbjahr 2016 fort. Die Stimmung der Unternehmen ist jedoch noch zurückhaltend, weshalb der Stellenaufbau auf sich warten lässt. Der Aufwertungs-druck auf den Franken bleibt erhalten. Somit dürften die Niedrigzinsen im laufenden Jahr Bestand haben.
French: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook 2H16
Le rétablissement de la conjoncture suisse s’est poursuivi au premier semestre 2016. Néanmoins, les entreprises font encore preuve de prudence, les créations d’emplois se faisant par là même attendre. La pression à la hausse qui pèse sur le franc reste mesurée. Les taux faibles devraient de ce fait perdurer pour l’année en cours.
German: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook 1H16
Die Talsohle scheint durchschritten und eine leichte Wachstumsbeschleunigung wird für 2016 erwartet. Die Belebung der Auslandsnachfrage nach Schweizer Waren und Dienstleistungen sollte diese Entwicklung unterstützen.
French: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook 1H16
Le creux de la vague semble dépassé et une légère accélération de la croissance est attendue pour 2016. Cette tendance devrait se trouver soutenue par la reprise de la demande extérieure en faveur des biens et des services suisses.
German: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook 2H15
Die Schweizer Wirtschaft verliert aufgrund der starken Frankenbewertung an Fahrt. Sofern sich die Weltkonjunktur und der Euroraum jedoch weiter erholen, dürfte eine Rezession vorerst abgewendet sein.
French: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook - 2H15
Du fait d’une forte valorisation du franc, l’économie suisse a enregistré un ralentissement de sa dynamique. La poursuite du rétablissement de la conjoncture au niveau mondial et au sein de la zone euro devrait toutefois permettre d’éviter pour l’heure une récession.
German: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook 1H15
Die Schweizer Konjunktur wird 2015 von der Aufhebung des FrankenMindestkurses zum Euro geprägt. Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich bisher robust. Dennoch steigt der Druck auf den kommerziellen Flächenmarkt aufgrund des unsicheren Konjunkturverlaufs.
French: Swiss real estate market - half-yearly outlook 1H15
Jusqu'à présenten 2015, l'économie suisse a été marquée par la suppression du taux plancher. Le marché du travail a fait preuve de robustesse. Néanmoins, la pression sur le marché des surfaces commerciales augmente en raison de l'évolution conjoncturelle incertaine.