Panorama mid-year

The reflation debate

16 Jun 2017

Is s the global reflation investment theme over? Senior members of AM's investment teams across both traditional and alternative asset classes wade into the debate.

We asked our contributors to identify the risks and opportunities in their respective investment universes in the context of what we see as the three key drivers of markets in the remainder of 2017 and beyond:

  1. The theme of reflation
  2. The extent to which monetary policy changes have already been priced in by the markets
  3. Geopolitical developments globally

In aggregate, the responses highlight the diversity of views around the US growth and inflation narrative— suggesting that market dispersion and therefore the opportunity set for high conviction active managers to generate alpha is likely to stay high. The most strident message regards the high level of economic, policy and geopolitical uncertainty globally. For markets this may well mean more frequent and more severe bouts of risk aversion than has been the case for most of the post-financial crisis period. But for high conviction active managers, it also means the strongest potential opportunity set for a decade.

Important legal information

To proceed, please confirm that you are a professional / qualified / institutional client and investor.

Views and opinions expressed are presented for informational purposes only and are a reflection of UBS Asset Management’s best judgment at the time a report or other content was compiled. UBS specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the prior written permission of UBS and UBS accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. The information and opinions contained in the content of this webpage have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no responsibility is accepted for any errors or omissions. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice but any obligation to update or alter forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise is disclaimed. Source for all data/charts, if not stated otherwise: UBS Asset Management.
Any market or investment views expressed are not intended to be investment research. Materials have not been prepared to address requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and are not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The information contained in this webpage does not constitute a distribution, nor should it be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or fund. The materials and content provided will not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. As individual situations may differ, clients should seek independent professional tax, legal, accounting or other specialist advisors as to the legal and tax implication of investing. Plan fiduciaries should determine whether an investment program is prudent in light of a plan's own circumstances and overall portfolio. A number of the comments in the content of this webpage are considered forward-looking statements. Actual future results, however, may vary materially. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Potential for profit is accompanied by possibility of loss. 
© UBS 2020 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS.