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UBS consumption indicator: High ends in July

Zurich/Basel Media Releases Switzerland

The UBS consumption indicator clearly buckled in July after reaching its six-year high in the previous month.

The UBS consumption indicator sank from 2.07 to 1.66 points in July. The decrease is based on the development of most of the sub-indicators. Only new vehicle registrations rose in July, preventing an even stronger drop in the UBS consumption indicator.

Consumer sentiment, recorded by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) as one of the five sub indicators included in the calculation of the UBS consumption indicator, was slightly weaker in July. The index sank from 1 to -1 points. Sentiment thus remains above the long standing average of -9 points and only just behind the previously achieved three-year high. The indicator is influenced by two opposing assessments. On one hand, households anticipate their future economic and financial situation to be worse. On the other, as more consumers assume an improvement to the labor market, along with higher prices, they consider the present time favorable for larger purchases, including cars.

Retail business incurred the end to an upward trend – of several months – in business development. The index from the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) fell to 10 points from 19. The registration of new vehicles was surprisingly strong, in contrast. Since 2000, there have never been so many new vehicle registrations in the month of July as in the current year. Seasonally adjusted, 26% more new vehicles were registered than in the previous month. This broke the negative trend in new vehicle registrations for the first time since 2012.

UBS AG

Media contact

Bernd Aumann, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Tel. +41 44 234 88 71, bernd.aumann@ubs.com

Sibille Duss, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Tel. +41 44 235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

 

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/wmr-swiss-research