UBS launches white paper on the New Global Context for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2015 in Davos
Publication recommends solutions to challenges presented by US energy independence, technological advancement, financial policy shifts, and the environmental credit crunch.
Zurich/Basel, 21 January 2015 – UBS today launches a white paper titled, The New Global Context: Could economic transformations threaten stability? for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2015 in Davos, Switzerland. The paper includes a foreword by Axel Weber, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Sergio P. Ermotti, Group Chief Executive Officer.
The white paper draws on analysis from across UBS to tackle the central theme of the Annual Meeting – The New Global Context faced by the world economy this year and beyond. It examines four key pillars of development – US energy independence, technological innovation, the exit from loose monetary policy, and the environmental credit crunch. It also recommends solutions to related challenges for the global economy, including geopolitical tensions, financial vulnerabilities, and poverty.
The publication leveraged the expertise from the entire UBS Group and was co-authored by five UBS Opinion Leaders from UBS Global Asset Management, UBS Investment Bank, and UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office.
Axel Weber, Chairman of the Board of Directors says: "As we convene at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos to discuss The New Global Context, the potential for elevated geopolitical and societal volatility show that urgent action is required, particularly with respect to addressing local and global inequalities, and building a strong policy framework for global security that encompasses the geopolitical, financial, physical, and digital spheres. In each of these domains, a greater level inter- and intra-governmental cooperation will be required than has been in evidence in recent years."
Sergio Ermotti, Group Chief Executive Officer says: "The world is undergoing major transformations. In just two examples, technological development is changing our everyday personal and business lives, and the emergence of the US as a major energy provider is changing the global calculus, shifting the balance of power toward oil consumers and away from suppliers. Both should be seen as positives. But without better global integration and cooperation they could each prove to be a force for ill, rather than good."
The four main discussion points in the white paper are:
Energy. The US shale boom has lowered energy costs and alleviated the threat of supply disruptions, but it has also cut the flow of US dollars to emerging markets and fueled geopolitical change.
Technology. Technological advancement typically increases overall productivity and wealth but can polarize workforces and open up cybersecurity concerns.
Financial policy. Normalizing US monetary policy could prove disruptive for emerging markets. Careful macro-prudential measures are needed to ensure stable shifts in the monetary cycle.
The environment. Global economic and environmental objectives continue to be misaligned. Environmental credit crunches may multiply, with considerable social and political consequences.
The authors of the white paper articles are:
At UBS Global Asset Management: Andreas Koester, Head of Asset Allocation & Currency.
At UBS Investment Bank: Stephane Deo, Global Head of Macro Strategy & Asset Allocation; Larry Hatheway, Chief Economist.
At UBS Wealth Management: Mark Haefele, Global Chief Investment Officer; Simon Smiles, Chief Investment Officer for Ultra High Net Worth.
UBS's white paper on The New Global Context is available in PDF format at ubs.com/followubs and in an iPad version on the UBS Newsstand app. For more information or to request interviews with white paper authors, please contact UBS media relations using the numbers below.
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