Follow Paul Donovan

Tweeting trade

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump will address the nation about the big, beautiful border wall. Markets are unlikely to react, unless the comments are seen as impacting the length of the government shutdown. There has been little visible movement towards ending the shutdown so far.
  • US-China trade talks in Beijing have been extended into Wednesday. The Trump Twitter Feed is sounding more positive on the outcome, with media suggesting that the US president wants a deal to boost the equity market. If accurate, that would imply a superficial deal that offers a tweetable moment rather than a substantial change.
  • German trade data is due today. Politics makes trade data more important than in the past. Globalization may have peaked (for structural reasons) but it remains very important to large, listed companies. Meanwhile, one of President Trump's nominees for a vacant Fed governorship has withdrawn their candidacy. This might raise fears over Fed independence.
  • The UK exit from the EU continues. The UK government was defeated in a symbolic vote, which demonstrated a majority in parliament against a "no deal" exit. This may strengthen the government's chances of eventually getting a deal passed, by rallying anti-Europeans to the idea of a negotiated exit.