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Relatives matter

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Much of economics is about how one part of the economy is doing compared to other parts of the economy. In 2018, the global economy did almost exactly what it was expected to do, but markets were volatile. This was because politics threatened the economics that matter to large companies, without doing much overall economic damage.
  • The US employment report on Friday showed economic strength. Companies are hiring and have to pay more to attract people into the workforce. This is good for consumers and the overall economy – a fact Fed Chair Powell recognized on Friday.
  • Politics is still creating relative threats. The threats to trade are less in focus at the moment, but the US government shutdown continues (and does more damage the longer it goes on). Data releases from the US are affected by the shutdown – leaving investors with only the less-than-satisfactory private sector sentiment opinion polls.
  • The interminably tedious process of the UK exiting the EU continues – because of course it does. Parliament is supposed to vote on the exit plan this week (everyone expects it to be rejected). In Europe, there are also political risks (French protests at the weekend), along with German retail sales data.