Follow Paul Donovan

Welcome to gridlock

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The breakdown of talks on the US government shutdown has made investors worry a little. The media is focusing on the personal and economic costs of the shutdown. The emphatic way in which the talks fell apart may also raise investor concerns about what the next two years in Washington is likely to look like.
  • Otherwise, politics has been helpful. The China-US trade talks have moved ahead somewhat. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve were more dovish than the statement in December. To hike rates the Fed probably needs 2% inflation, 2% growth and markets expecting a rate rise. Those conditions should be met this year, but the government shutdown may delay them.
  • The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its last meeting. As the US Fed nears the end of the tightening, the ECB has yet to really get going. Nothing is likely to excite the markets in today's release – change is not expected before the change in the ECB presidency.
  • China's inflation data moderated on both consumer and producer price measures, but there is little international impact. The government has offered another piece of fiscal stimulus, this time in the form of corporate tax cuts.