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No tweets on the data today

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • It is US employment report Friday. US President Trump has not tweeted anything directly about the data, which might argue against a stronger number. The expectation is for a decline in the unemployment rate on rising participation.
  • The threat of tax increases hangs over the heads of the US consumers, suspended like the sword of Damocles by a single blond hair. The consultation period for the tax on consumers of goods partially made in China ended yesterday. The US president hinted that US consumers of goods partially made in Japan may be next to face higher taxes. The not-NAFTA agreement talks continue today.
  • Politics is in focus. The leading presidential candidate in Brazil has been stabbed, and is in a stable condition. Voters normally overlook such things, but it does add uncertainty. Sweden's general election will be looked to this weekend to assess the strength of support for anti-parties. Investors often (unwisely) extrapolate from one country's experience into a general trend.
  • The Bitcoin bubble has deflated further this week, continuing to transfer wealth from the many to the few. The bubble is not big enough for negative wealth effects to have a noticeable economic impact, but some sections of the economy may feel it.