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Hike and be happy

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Economists said the US Fed would raise rates. The US Fed raised rates. There is a lesson there, maybe. The tone of the policy decision is consistent with the idea of a December rate increase. US President Trump was "not happy" about the hike. If the US economy experienced a major and immediate slowdown in the wake of the Trump trade taxes, a December increase might be questioned.
  • The trade dispute between the US and China does not look like it's ending soon. US President Trump accused China of "meddling" in the forthcoming US midterm elections. Perhaps it is time to break out another slice of the "most beautiful piece of chocolate cake" and repair relations?
  • US second quarter GDP is revised. This will still show the sugar high from the US tax cuts at the start of the year. Markets may be distracted by the hearings into the Supreme Court nominee – not because the hearings have an immediate bearing on markets, but because the media coverage is intense.
  • German CPI is released. Some German data has softened recently. German Chancellor Merkel addresses the governing CDU party – with some investors hearing the opening bars of "so long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, goodbye" playing faintly in the background.