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EU-UK: how tedious

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • In the interminably tedious process of separating the EU and the UK, there has been disagreement. The informal leaders' summit in Austria agreed to hold a formal leaders' summit (probably in Austria) in November, in order to do a deal. However, the Northern Ireland border is provoking strong language.
  • It seems that when US president Trump threatened an "immediate" response to any Chinese retaliation to US taxes on trade, the US president did not mean that the response would be immediate. There has been no response so far. What the US president actually meant is now a topic of some speculation.
  • The Turkish government presents its medium-term economic program today. The Turkish lira has been comparatively stable recently. However, we are no longer in a low rate world (US 10-year Treasuries are still over 3%). Markets will want to see a plan that does not depend on credit.
  • UK retail sales are due – the UK consumer seems content to ignore the EU divorce talks. The US Philly Fed survey of business sentiment is a sentiment survey, and as no right-minded person fills in surveys any more this can be downplayed. Praet of the ECB is to speak.