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How immediate is "immediately"?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump threatened to "immediately" put even more taxes on US consumers if the Chinese retaliated against trade tariffs. The Chinese retaliated. The announced taxes take effect next week – that could trigger "immediately". If all Chinese exports to the US are taxed, Sino-US trade will probably fall as a share of the economy. That would be a Sino-US (but not global) trade war.
  • The staggered nature of the last trade taxes suggests some in the US administration understand the domestic consumer will suffer. The fact that US President Trump implied the Chinese were paying these taxes (every cent is paid by US companies and consumers) suggests that this understanding may not be universal.
  • If everything partially made in China and exported to the US is taxed, what else can US President Trump campaign against? Something has to fill the Trump Twitter Feed. Other countries may be the target of the next campaign. Japan's exports to the US rose in data overnight. European current account data is due.
  • The UK has price data. Producer prices represent corporate pricing power. Consumer prices represent the Bank of England's target. Retail prices represent the British sense of humor, by pretending to be useful data.