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Surging and collapsing

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Turkey's central bank was moderately interesting yesterday, raising interest rates to 24%. This defied Turkish President Erdogan's theory that lower interest rates lower inflation. Markets appear to support the more orthodox theory. The Turkish lira is the strongest it has been in over two weeks. Current account data is due today.
  • The Trump Twitter Feed suggested the US did not need a China deal because "our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing". Relative equity performance reflects relative valuation, relative exposure to trade, and equities are relatively unimportant to economies. It does not reflect the costs of a trade war. The risk is the US president assumes the US has an negotiating advantage it does not have.
  • Chinese retail sales were reported at 9.3% y/y growth. US retail sales are due today (currently 6.4% growth). Chinese industrial production was reported at 6.1% y/y growth. US industrial production is due today (currently 4.2% growth). Such comparisons are pretty meaningless. US pre-tax import price data is due.
  • Carney of the Bank of England speaks, after reportedly warning of a plague of frogs if the EU leaves the UK single market without a deal. Evans of the Fed and Nowotny of the ECB also speak.