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If Trump meets Kim, should markets care?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump is keen to meet North Korean leader Kim. This does not matter much. Markets worried about risks ahead of the last meeting. These risks have largely gone. Markets might possibly read Trump overlooking the apparent continuation of North Korea's nuclear program as a signal of disinterest that could be applied to the trade negotiation details.
  • Mexico's finance minister indicated that Mexico would be willing to sign the not-Nafta deal without Canada. It does not matter what Mexico is willing to do. What matters is what the US Congress will pass.
  • In the interminably tedious process of extricating the EU from the UK single market, something stirs. The historian Rees-Mogg completely failed to come up with an alternative to the government's economic plan. This might strengthen Prime Minister May's position. EU negotiator Barnier hinted a deal was possible; sterling rallied. It may be a little undignified to have sterling's value depend on the lightest word of a French politician.
  • UK labor market data should continue to show strength. The German ZEW business sentiment survey is a survey and can be largely ignored. The US NFIB business sentiment survey is a survey with a suggestion of political bias, so can be doubly ignored.