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Deal or no deal?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is suggesting that no Nafta deal is better than a bad Nafta deal. UK Prime Minister May should consider suing for breach of copyright. US political realities mean that the not-Nafta deal has to be agreed by Friday. If Canada does not join not-Nafta, it is questionable whether not-Nafta will pass Congress.
  • The UK government is suggesting that it is the UK deal or no deal, when it comes to the EU's separation from the UK's single market. This reflects the reality of UK parliamentary politics – there is little ability for the UK government to compromise further.
  • Inflation is a recurring theme today. The Spanish and the Germans will come out with preliminary August data. Spanish data is expected to be over 2%. German data is expected to be over 2%. The ECB's task is to keep inflation below 2%. Someone should remind ECB President Draghi.
  • US inflation is due in the form of the personal consumer expenditure deflator. This is unlikely to change the course of the Fed's rate increases. The data will be affected by US President Trump's consumer tax increases, but these take several months to hit prices. Income data is also due.