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Don't trust the data

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Jackson Hole economists' summer camp is always examined for near-term signals, even though that is not its purpose. The takeaway from the near-term signals is for a US rate rise in September, and the option of a rate rise in December.
  • Fed Chair Powell's speechwriters emphasized that inflation may not be the best signal of overheating in an economy (roughly half US CPI is not driven by market forces, so that is not surprising). Structural change challenges certainty about long-term variables. In words that should be carved over the entrance to every financial dealing room in the world "don't trust the data".
  • Trade taxes were mentioned at Jackson Hole. There was a concern that as US President Trump imposes more and more taxes on the US consumer, the effects will appear in inflation. Trade will remain in focus with Sino-US talks not having progressed, and US President Trump tying trade to North Korea's failure to denuclearize.
  • The German ifo sentiment survey is due – on the subject of not trusting data (though German surveys tend to be better than other countries' surveys). German Chancellor Merkel used a television address to urge Europe to take more global leadership.