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Economic security

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump was getting very excited (and a little muddled) about NATO defence spending. The argument may be back to front. Economic security would be best served if NATO insisted US defence spending be cut by 1.5% of GDP, reducing it to 2% GDP. This would reduce the US budget and trade deficits, reduce overheating risk, and if focused on cutting pork barrel spending could increase productivity.
  • The UK White Paper detailing the escape mechanism for leaving the EU is due to be published. How quickly the EU rejects the terms may hint at the probability of a hard or soft exit. A quick rejection by the EU could imply a hard exit as the UK is unlikely to make many more concessions.
  • German and French consume price inflation numbers are due. Both will show headline CPI above the ECB's target rate. ECB President Draghi stressed that that the headline rate mattered when the headline rate was low. Presumably that has not changed.
  • US consumer price inflation is expected to rise on both headline and core measure. US corporate pricing power has increased. The details of CPI may hint at how easily US President Trump's trade taxes can be passed on to the US consumer.