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Inflation normal. Central bank policy normalising

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Inflation measures targeted by the ECB and the US Fed are likely to come in around target. Eurozone core CPI will be low, but ECB President Draghi stressed the importance of targeting the headline rate when oil prices were low. It would be an act of breath-taking brazenness to reverse that position with higher oil prices.
  • Japanese consumer price inflation and employment data are due as well. However, Japanese consumer inflation perceptions may be more significant than the inflation reality in shaping spending patterns.
  • The EU heads of government summit carries on. As of Thursday evening, things have not been getting much better for German Chancellor Merkel. The Italians are saying "no" to everything until everyone agrees to do something about the refugee crisis (and by "do something" the supposition is that Italian PM Conte means "do what the Italians want").
  • The latest Chief Economist's Comment is out. "Pride and Prejudice, and Economists" examines the economic damage of prejudice against LGBTQ people. Prejudice reduces company profits and economic growth. It is legal to discriminate against non-heterosexuals in two thirds of the countries of the UN. In 4% of UN countries, people are executed for not being heterosexual.