Few surprises to start the week
- The Turkish state-run media have declared President Erdogan to be the victor of the weekend's elections. The financial markets will now want to see what policies are put in place to bring the growth rate back to a sustainable level, and to restore sufficient confidence so as to be able to encourage capital inflows.
- China's central bank has added monetary stimulus to the already announced fiscal stimulus. The reserve requirement ratio has been cut. This is not a surprise. The Chinese are clearly moving to support their economy as trade tensions grow.
- The EU seems to be concerned about trade, with an internal memo warning of the breakdown of rules-based trading. So far, this is largely a breakdown with the US – other countries are playing by the rules. The EU Commission has also warned of a direct response to any new taxes on EU cars imported into the US.
- The data calendar is rather quiet today. The Ifo survey is due – and in the rather dubious world of survey evidence, the Ifo stands out as being better correlated with reality than others. This may owe something to the fact that Germans are more likely to fill in a form when asked.