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Time to tighten a bit

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US Federal Reserve did what was expected. Rates were raised. The cursed dots moved around in front of the eyes of economists. More rate hikes were signaled. This was all consistent with the idea of the Fed raising rates another couple of times this year, and continuing into 2019.
  • Now it is the turn of the ECB. ECB President Draghi's extensive rehabilitation to overcome an addiction to easing seems to have paid off. There are hopes of either 1) an announcement of the timetable to end bond buying, or 2) an announcement of an announcement of the timetable to end bond buying.
  • Central bank tightening is not aimed at reducing inflation, so much as keeping inflation as it is. It is clear that liquidity demand is falling in the US and the Euro area. Central banks need to deal with this (and with an associated change in private demand for fixed income assets) by altering quantitative policies.
  • There are several Euro area inflation figures, which markets will ignore. Retail sales figures from the UK and the US will be of some note. The former is ammunition for both sides fighting interminably tedious battles in the debate over leaving the EU.