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Signing deals in invisible ink

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The G7 has always been more about spin than about substance. Spin can work two ways. US President Trump reversed the US agreement to the communique with a tweet. This could be spun as negotiation. It could be spun as an isolated US. Over half S&P earnings come from outside the US.
  • This is not the 1930s. First, there is no multilateral breakdown of trade. Europe is not fighting China. Japan is not fighting Canada. The US is fighting everyone, and everyone is carrying on without them. Second, trade is complex.  It is estimated that around 80% of global trade is part of long supply chains, and around 40% of global trade is within companies. Damaging trade has complex consequences.
  • Italy's new finance minister, Tria, gave a strong endorsement of the euro in comments over the weekend. Italy's disagreements with the EU seem more likely to focus on immigration than on economics.
  • The Bitcoin bubble received another blow, with news that someone "appears" to have stolen crypto assets held by a South Korean company. Crypto assets present themselves as secure and democratic. Security is questionable, and like all bubbles the benefits accrue not to the many, but to the few.